Extension Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2% in Subjects With Gorlin Syndrome (Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectcarcinomapriorcompletedbe willing
  Phrases that lowered it: gelopen labelfacialvisitface
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) in Subjects With Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome (Gorlin Syndrome) NCT03703310 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Patidegib Gel 2% for Preventing Basal Cell Carcinomas on the Face of Adults With Gorlin Syndrome NCT06050122 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• CODY: A Study Evaluating The Safety And Efficacy Of QTORIN 3.9% Sirolimus Topical Gel For The Prevention Of Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) In Patients With Gorlin Syndrome NCT04893486 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Trial of Patidegib Gel 2%, 4%, and Vehicle to Decrease the Number of Surgically Eligible Basal Cell Carcinomas in Gorlin Syndrome Patients NCT02762084 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Patidegib Gel 2%, 4%, and Vehicle Applied Once or Twice Daily to Decrease the GLI1 Biomarker in Sporadic Nodular Basal Cell Carcinomas NCT02828111 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.