Efficacy and Safety of Patidegib Gel 2% for Preventing Basal Cell Carcinomas on the Face of Adults With Gorlin Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-09-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectskeymelanomarandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: facegelcancertopicalthe aim
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas in Patients With Non-Gorlin High Frequency BCC NCT04155190 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Extension Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2% in Subjects With Gorlin Syndrome (Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome) NCT04308395 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) in Subjects With Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome (Gorlin Syndrome) NCT03703310 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• CODY: A Study Evaluating The Safety And Efficacy Of QTORIN 3.9% Sirolimus Topical Gel For The Prevention Of Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) In Patients With Gorlin Syndrome NCT04893486 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Local Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of LDE225 on Skin Basal Cell Carcinomas in Gorlin Syndrome Patients NCT00961896 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.