A Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas in Patients With Non-Gorlin High Frequency BCC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hascellcarcinomastagecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalfaceparticipantsand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Patidegib Gel 2% for Preventing Basal Cell Carcinomas on the Face of Adults With Gorlin Syndrome NCT06050122 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2%, for the Reduction of Disease Burden of Persistently Developing Basal Cell Carcinomas (BCCs) in Subjects With Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome (Gorlin Syndrome) NCT03703310 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Extension Study of Patidegib Topical Gel, 2% in Subjects With Gorlin Syndrome (Basal Cell Nevus Syndrome) NCT04308395 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial of Patidegib Gel 2%, 4%, and Vehicle Applied Once or Twice Daily to Decrease the GLI1 Biomarker in Sporadic Nodular Basal Cell Carcinomas NCT02828111 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Trial of Patidegib Gel 2%, 4%, and Vehicle to Decrease the Number of Surgically Eligible Basal Cell Carcinomas in Gorlin Syndrome Patients NCT02762084 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.