Efficacy and Safety of Emapalumab and Anakinra in Reducing Hyperinflammation and Respiratory Distress in Patients With COVID-19 Infection.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-11-13, after 2020-04-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientcellspresence ofiiventilation
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryblood pressurethe investigatorand safetyefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6091 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6091 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1706 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anakinra, emapalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Trial of the Use of Anakinra in Cytokine Storm Syndrome Secondary to Covid-19 (ANA-COVID-GEAS) NCT04443881 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Telmisartan in Respiratory Failure Due to COVID-19 NCT04510662 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Study of Efficacy and Safety of MAS825 in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04382651 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Intravenous Anakinra and Ruxolitinib During COVID-19 Inflammation NCT04366232 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Siltuximab vs. Corticosteroids in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04329650 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.