Clinical Trial of the Use of Anakinra in Cytokine Storm Syndrome Secondary to Covid-19 (ANA-COVID-GEAS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-03-31, after 2020-05-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstandardcareintravenousgreater
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyclinical trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6345 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1879 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- anakinra
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Intravenous Anakinra and Ruxolitinib During COVID-19 Inflammation NCT04366232 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
- Anakinra for COVID-19 Respiratory Symptoms NCT04364009 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
- Anti-il6 Treatment of Serious COVID-19 Disease With Threatening Respiratory Failure NCT04322773 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Anakinra in the Management of COVID-19 Infection NCT04643678 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- SCIL-1Ra in COVID-19 Feasibility & PK/PD NCT04462757 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.