Anti-il6 Treatment of Serious COVID-19 Disease With Threatening Respiratory Failure
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-10-08, after 2020-04-05 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstherapyheartfailuresyndrome
Phrases that lowered it: effectthe studyperiodexaminationfindings -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 50223 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13254 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sarilumab, tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Trial of the Use of Anakinra in Cytokine Storm Syndrome Secondary to Covid-19 (ANA-COVID-GEAS) NCT04443881 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Treatment of COVID-19 Patients With Anti-interleukin Drugs NCT04330638 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Tocilizumab to Prevent Clinical Decompensation in Hospitalized, Non-critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonitis NCT04331795 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sarilumab in Hospitalised Patients With Moderate-severe COVID-19 Infection (SARCOVID) NCT04357808 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Tocilizumab in the Treatment of Coronavirus Induced Disease (COVID-19) NCT04335071 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.