Efficacy of Subcutaneous Sarilumab in Hospitalised Patients With Moderate-severe COVID-19 Infection (SARCOVID)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-04, after 2020-04-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientscellstherapycount000
Phrases that lowered it: kg19administrationclinicalstudy to -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 35.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3850 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1989 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 35.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sarilumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clinical Trial of Sarilumab in Adults With COVID-19 NCT04357860 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Sarilumab in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT04315298 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Cohort Multiple Randomized Controlled Trials Open-label of Immune Modulatory Drugs and Other Treatments in COVID-19 Patients - Sarilumab Trial - CORIMUNO-19 - SARI NCT04324073 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Anti-il6 Treatment of Serious COVID-19 Disease With Threatening Respiratory Failure NCT04322773 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Sarilumab for Patients With Moderate COVID-19 Disease NCT04359901 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.