Neoadjuvant Nivolumab and Chemotherapy in Patients With Localized Triple-negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyacutecancercarcinomasyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisparticipantparticipantspatientsocular
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 672 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 176046 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 27823 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• M7824 and Eribulin Mesylate in Treating Patients With Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT03579472 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Atezolizumab Immunotherapy in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT03102242 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Ramucirumab and Atezolizumab After Progression on Any Immune Checkpoint Blocker in NSCLC NCT03689855 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare a Mono Atezolizumab Window Followed by a Atezolizumab - CTX Therapy With Atezolizumab - CTX Therapy NCT04770272 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Atezolizumab and Cobimetinib or Idasanutlin in Participants With Stage IV or Unresectable Recurrent Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT03566485 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.