Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With RMS (evolutionRMS 2)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2024-03-19, after 2020-07-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: sclerosisrelapsingrandomizationmsprogressive
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andparticipantperiod -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 43.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26717 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3790 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 43.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- evobrutinib, teriflunomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With RMS (evolutionRMS 1) NCT04338022 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
- Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With RMS NCT04032171 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
- Study of Evobrutinib in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (RMS) NCT04032158 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
- A Study Comparing the Effectiveness and Safety of Teriflunomide and Interferon Beta-1a in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT00883337 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Daclizumab in Participants With RRMS Switching From Natalizumab NCT02881567 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.