Itacitinib, Tacrolimus, and Sirolimus for the Prevention of GVHD in Patients With Acute Leukemia, Myelodysplastic Syndrome, or Myelofibrosis Undergoing Reduced Intensity Conditioning Donor Stem Cell Transplantation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: donorstemtransplantationtherapycells
  Phrases that lowered it: participanthcvparticipantsaminotransferaseinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 157 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 140325 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22445 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Itacitinib for the Treatment of Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT04200365 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Itacitinib (INCB039110) and Extracorporeal Photopheresis (ECP) for First-Line Treatment in Chronic GVHD NCT04446182 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Ibrutinib for the Prevention of Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Patients Undergoing Donor Stem Cell Transplant NCT06271616 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Itacitinib and Tocilizumab for Steroid Refractory Acute Graft Versus Host Disease NCT04070781 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Trial of Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) for the Prevention of Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) Following Myeloablative Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) (MK-7110-002) NCT02663622 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.