Phase II Trial of Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) for the Prevention of Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (GVHD) Following Myeloablative Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) (MK-7110-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorhlacelltransplantationdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluate thefev1aml
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 201144 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 34801 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) for the Prevention of Acute Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD) Following Myeloablative Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) (MK-7110-005) NCT04095858 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• TAC/MTX vs. TAC/MMF/PTCY for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease and Microbiome and Immune Reconstitution Study (BMT CTN 1703/1801) NCT03959241 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Novel Approaches for Graft-versus-Host Disease Prevention Compared to Contemporary Controls (BMT CTN 1203) NCT02208037 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Pediatric Study of GVHD Ppx w/o Calcineurin Inhibitors After Day60 Post First Allo HSCT for Hematological Malignancies. NCT05579769 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Allogeneic or Haploidentical Stem Cell Transplant Followed By High-Dose Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02057770 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.