Study of Abrocitinib Compared With Dupilumab in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis on Background Topical Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: doublewomenblindcontrolledhistory including
  Phrases that lowered it: atopicparticipantsdermatitismoderateand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1900 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17499 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare Safety and Efficacy of Upadacitinib to Dupilumab in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03738397 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Adverse Events and Change in Disease Activity Comparing Oral Upadacitinib to Subcutaneous Dupilumab in Adolescent and Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05601882 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Study of ASLAN004 in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05158023 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Mechanism of Action of PF-04965842 Monotherapy for Moderate-to-severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03915496 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate ABT-494 (Upadacitinib) in Adults With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT02925117 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.