Oral Favipiravir Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Mild COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-16, after 2020-07-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hours30 daysof studyadvancedsite
Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryvisitparticipantoralinhaled -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 714 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 21 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 714 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- favipiravir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Prevent Severe COVID-19 (PRESECO) Study NCT04600895 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Study of the Use of Favipiravir in Hospitalized Subjects With COVID-19 NCT04358549 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Favipiravir Therapy in Adults With Mild COVID-19 NCT04464408 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir-HU NCT04940871 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir in Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04529499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.