Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir in Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-01-27, after 2020-08-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagerandomizationagreelast doseblind placebo
Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasepatientspressurenasalhg -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 212 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 30 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 212 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 30 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 22 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- favipiravir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial to Determine the Efficacy/Safety of Plitidepsin vs Control in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 Infection NCT04784559 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 2/3 Study to Evaluate FP-025 in Patients With Severe to Critical COVID 19 NCT04750278 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Proxalutamide (GT0918) in Hospitalized COVID-19 Subjects NCT05009732 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- Ultramicronized Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) Treatment in Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT04619706 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.