Trial to Determine the Efficacy/Safety of Plitidepsin vs Control in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: informationulnstageqteffective
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateadministration oflaboratory19investigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 38971 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 219258 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir in Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04529499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Plitidepsin Versus Control in Immunocompromised Adult Participants With Symptomatic COVID-19 Requiring Hospital Care (NEREIDA) NCT05705167 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Proxalutamide (GT0918) in Hospitalized COVID-19 Subjects NCT05009732 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ATR-002 in Adult Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT04776044 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.