Glucagon Regulation of Glucose Metabolism
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-16, after 2019-09-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: insulincurrentdiabetesmedicationsincluding
Phrases that lowered it: mgdlcellsnormalegfr -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1727 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 308 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- glucagon
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Dose-response Study Examining the Contribution of GLP-1 Receptor Signaling to Glucagon-stimulated Insulin Secretion NCT04459338 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Glucagon Response to Prandial Insulin Administration in Persons With Type 1 Diabetes NCT04079881 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
- DPP4 Inhibition & Beta Cell Function NCT02683187 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Effect of GLP-1 on Insulin Biosynthesis and Turnover Rates NCT00609154 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
- The Effect of the Interaction of Glucagon and Insulin on Endogenous Glucose Production in Humans NCT04461015 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.