A Dose-response Study Examining the Contribution of GLP-1 Receptor Signaling to Glucagon-stimulated Insulin Secretion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-06-14, after 2021-03-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: receptorsurgeryin subjectstype diabetesenrollment
Phrases that lowered it: normalupperresponse20evaluate the -
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 25 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Endogenous GLP-1 Secretion on Islet Function in People With and Without Type 2 Diabetes NCT04466618 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Glucagon Regulation of Glucose Metabolism NCT04347252 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- DPP4 Inhibition & Beta Cell Function NCT02683187 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Genetic Variation on Beta-cell Function During Fasting and Hyperglycemia in Nondiabetics NCT04466566 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Effect of GLP-1 on Insulin Biosynthesis and Turnover Rates NCT00609154 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.