Safety and Feasibility of PD-1 Blockade in the Treatment of dMMR or MSI-H Rectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationmricancerpriortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscombinationresponseantiretroviralupper
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 220 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85823 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15432 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• INNATE: Immunotherapy During Neoadjuvant Therapy for Rectal Cancer NCT04130854 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Response to Immunotherapy in MMR-deficient Localized Colon Cancer NCT05662527 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) as Monotherapy in Participants With Previously-Treated Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (MK-3475-164/KEYNOTE-164) NCT02460198 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) vs Standard Therapy in Participants With Microsatellite Instability-High (MSI-H) or Mismatch Repair Deficient (dMMR) Stage IV Colorectal Carcinoma (MK-3475-177/KEYNOTE-177) NCT02563002 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Efficacy and Safety of PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody Combined With IL-2 and CapeOX in Neoadjuvant Therapy for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Prior to Surgery: A Prospective, Multi-center, Randomized Controlled Study NCT06884670 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.