Response to Immunotherapy in MMR-deficient Localized Colon Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerhourscarcinomastagetherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmaleefficacyinfluenzaevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13083 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49009 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Feasibility of PD-1 Blockade in the Treatment of dMMR or MSI-H Rectal Cancer NCT04357587 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) vs Standard Therapy in Participants With Microsatellite Instability-High (MSI-H) or Mismatch Repair Deficient (dMMR) Stage IV Colorectal Carcinoma (MK-3475-177/KEYNOTE-177) NCT02563002 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Study of GVAX (With CY) and Pembrolizumab in MMR-p Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02981524 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• mFOLFOX6+Bevacizumab+PD-1 Monoclonal Antibody in Local Advanced MSS CRC NCT04895137 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Prolgolimab Monotherapy in Locally Advanced MMR-deficient Colorectal Cancer NCT06428487 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.