Novel Agents for Treatment of High-risk COVID-19 Positive Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-01-12, after 2020-05-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientstreatingphase iicellii trial
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaindividualsallergyof multiplesubject -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3774 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 423 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 65.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- artesunate, camostat, ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Camostat and Artemisia Annua vs Placebo in COVID-19 Outpatients NCT04530617 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- PROTECT-APT 1: Early Treatment and Post-Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 NCT05954286 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Treatment for COVID-19 in High-Risk Adult Outpatients NCT04354428 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
- COVID MED Trial - Comparison Of Therapeutics for Hospitalized Patients Infected With COVID-19 NCT04328012 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Anti-Coronavirus Therapies to Prevent Progression of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Trial NCT04324463 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.