Treatment for COVID-19 in High-Risk Adult Outpatients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-11-30, after 2020-04-16 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pulmonarychronicheartinfectionrequiring
Phrases that lowered it: asthmatrialstopmgmonoclonal -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 530 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 530 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 128 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 639315 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 79936 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ascorbic acid, azithromycin, folic acid, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, lopinavir ritonavir, ritonavir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Novel Agents for Treatment of High-risk COVID-19 Positive Patients NCT04374019 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- PROTECT-APT 1: Early Treatment and Post-Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 NCT05954286 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Trial of Early Therapies During Non-hospitalized Outpatient Window for COVID-19 NCT04372628 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to Prevent Hospitalization or Death in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04358068 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
- NasoVAX in Patients With Early Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04442230 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.