Trial of Early Therapies During Non-hospitalized Outpatient Window for COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboadministrationdrinksrandomizationhepatitis
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoqtaminotransferasepainupper
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 47580 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Fluvoxamine Administration in Moderate SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infected Patients NCT04718480 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Decentralized, Randomized Phase 2 Efficacy and Safety Study of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in Adults with Long COVID. NCT05668091 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• COVID-OUT: Early Outpatient Treatment for SARS-CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19) NCT04510194 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Trial to Determine the Efficacy/Safety of Plitidepsin vs Control in Patients With Moderate COVID-19 Infection NCT04784559 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Treatment for COVID-19 in High-Risk Adult Outpatients NCT04354428 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.