COVID-OUT: Early Outpatient Treatment for SARS-CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-12-14, after 2021-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapyhearttransplantfailurestage
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsdoseinvestigatorinsulin -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 393 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 331237 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 37583 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 393 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 75 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 331237 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 37583 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 66.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fluvoxamine, ivermectin, metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Fluvoxamine for Early Treatment of Covid-19 (Stop Covid 2) NCT04668950 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Fluvoxamine Administration in Moderate SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infected Patients NCT04718480 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Fluvoxamine for Long COVID-19 NCT05874037 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Valacyclovir Plus Celecoxib for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 NCT06316843 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir in Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04529499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.