Valacyclovir Plus Celecoxib for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-31, after 2023-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acuteonsetprobablenegativechronic
Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantspatientsthe investigatorhealth -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 186811 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12679 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, valacyclovir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ultramicronized Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) Treatment in Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT04619706 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- NE3107 in Adults With Neurological Symptoms of Long COVID NCT06847191 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Double Blind, Placebo Controlled Study of Safety and Efficacy of Leronlimab in Patients With Long COVID-19 NCT04678830 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Intravenous Zotatifin in Adults With Mild or Moderate COVID-19 NCT04632381 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Dapansutrile for Treatment of Moderate COVID-19 Symptoms and Evidence of Early Cytokine Release Syndrome NCT04540120 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.