Assessment of Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib in Participants With COVID-19-Associated ARDS Who Require Mechanical Ventilation (RUXCOVID-DEVENT)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-02-26, after 2020-05-24 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 46.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationhoursimagingventilationmechanical
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantand safetyefficacy andlong term -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7459 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 65 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 46.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 29 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34453 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7459 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ruxolitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Covid-19 Induced Lung Injury ARDS NCT04359290 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Ruxolitinib for Acute Respiratory Disorder Syndrome Due to COVID-19 NCT04477993 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib in Patients With COVID-19 Associated Cytokine Storm NCT04362137 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Inhaled Iloprost for Suspected COVID-19 Respiratory Failure NCT04445246 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Inflammatory Signal Inhibitors for COVID-19 (MATIS) NCT04581954 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.