Ruxolitinib for Acute Respiratory Disorder Syndrome Due to COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-03-29, after 2020-08-14 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: 000enrollmentacutetherapypatients
Phrases that lowered it: respiratorysafetyefficacyclinicalto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 95 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 36276 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7530 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ruxolitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Covid-19 Induced Lung Injury ARDS NCT04359290 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Assessment of Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib in Participants With COVID-19-Associated ARDS Who Require Mechanical Ventilation (RUXCOVID-DEVENT) NCT04377620 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib in Patients With COVID-19 Associated Cytokine Storm NCT04362137 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Treatment of SARS Caused by COVID-19 With Ruxolitinib NCT04334044 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Intravenous Anakinra and Ruxolitinib During COVID-19 Inflammation NCT04366232 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.