SEMA4D Blockade Safety and Brain Metabolic Activity in Alzheimer's Disease (AD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mribrainalzheimerdementiacognitive
  Phrases that lowered it: hcvtrialparticipantparticipantsface
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Safety and Target Engagement of E2814 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Cognitive Impairment Due to Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer's Disease NCT04971733 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density NCT03493282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of PRI-002 in Patients With MCI to Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT06182085 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.