Zilucoplan® in Improving Oxygenation, Short-, Longterm Outcome of COVID19 Patients With Acute Hypoxic Respiratory Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsctpatientacutescan
  Phrases that lowered it: respiratorylabelinvestigate19open
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 243 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of COVID-19 Patients With Anti-interleukin Drugs NCT04330638 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Inhaled ZYESAMI™ (Aviptadil Acetate) for the Treatment of Severe COVID-19 NCT04360096 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Conestat Alfa in the Prevention of Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 NCT04414631 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Fostamatinib for Hospitalized Adults With COVID-19 NCT04579393 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Convalescent Plasma in Treating COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04354831 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.