Conestat Alfa in the Prevention of Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pulmonarychronichourslungkidney disease
  Phrases that lowered it: progressioninhibitorpatientstreatment withtherapy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 64 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 244 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 466 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• STOP-COVID19: Superiority Trial Of Protease Inhibition in COVID-19 NCT04817332 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Treatment With CSL312 in Adults With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04409509 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate OP-101 (Dendrimer N-acetyl-cysteine) in Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Patients NCT04458298 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Emapalumab and Anakinra in Reducing Hyperinflammation and Respiratory Distress in Patients With COVID-19 Infection. NCT04324021 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.