Study of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of QBW251 in Subjects With Bronchiectasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mschronicplaceboscreeningmonths
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsparticipantasthmacancertherapy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1361 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Assess the Mode of Action of QBW251 in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT04268823 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• A Study in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1323495 Are Tolerated and How BI 1323495 Affects Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT04656275 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Distribution of CHF 6333 After One or After Repeated Inhalation in Patients With Cystic Fibrosis (CF) and in Patients With Non Cystic Fibrosis (NCFB) Bronchiectasis NCT04010799 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study of HSK31858 in Participants with Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT05601778 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Different Doses of BI 1291583 Help People With Bronchiectasis NCT05238675 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.