Laboratory Screening of Lorcaserin for Alcohol Use Disorder
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-02-26, after 2019-10-25 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: riskheartincludingstroketherapy
Phrases that lowered it: smokingsmokersnicotineinteractionalcohol -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 14.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2681 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 147 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 14.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lorcaserin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mechanisms of Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT04396834 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
- Varenicline Treatment of Alcohol Dependence in Smokers NCT01553136 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Topiramate to Aid Smoking Cessation in Alcohol Dependent Men NCT00802412 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate AD04 in Adults With Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) and Selected Serotonin Transporter Polymorphisms NCT04101227 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Reduced Nicotine Cigarettes in Smokers With and Without Alcohol Use Disorder NCT02990455 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.