Niclosamide for Mild to Moderate COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-19, after 2020-10-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: treatment fordiseasepositiveoxygenpcr
Phrases that lowered it: will evaluatestudy willevaluate themoderateallergic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 86 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niclosamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of the Combination of Niclosamide and Camostat NCT04750759 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
- A Triple Combination Antiviral Coronavirus Therapy (TriACT) for COVID-19 NCT04605588 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
- SUNRISE-3: Efficacy and Safety of Bemnifosbuvir in High-Risk Outpatients With COVID-19 NCT05629962 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- The Nitazoxanide Plus Atazanavir for COVID-19 Study NCT04459286 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- Effects of Early Use of Nitazoxanide in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04552483 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.