Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801) to Eliminate Infectious Virus Detection in Persons With COVID-19

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termplaceboin clinicalkidney diseaseparticipation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantpatientsaminotransferaseplateletupper
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Safety of Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801) and Its Effect on Viral Shedding of SARS-CoV-2 (END-COVID) NCT04405739 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Proxalutamide (GT0918) in Hospitalized COVID-19 Subjects NCT05009732 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Ultramicronized Palmitoylethanolamide (PEA) Treatment in Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT04619706 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• A Randomised, Multi-centre, Double-blind, Phase 3 Study to Observe the Effectiveness, Safety and Tolerability of Molnupiravir Compared to Placebo Administered Orally to High-risk Adult Outpatients With Mild COVID-19 Receiving Local Standard of Care in South Africa NCT05459532 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study of MK-4482 for Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Adults (MK-4482-013) NCT04939428 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.