Study of MK-4482 for Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Adults (MK-4482-013)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1340 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 114 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationtolerabilityplacebo controlledblind placeboprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsevaluateadultsand safety
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Molnupiravir (MK-4482) in Non-Hospitalized Adult Participants With COVID-19 (MK-4482-002) NCT04575597 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Molnupiravir (MK-4482) in Hospitalized Adult Participants With COVID-19 (MK-4482-001) NCT04575584 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Molnupiravir (EIDD-2801) to Eliminate Infectious Virus Detection in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04405570 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Randomised, Multi-centre, Double-blind, Phase 3 Study to Observe the Effectiveness, Safety and Tolerability of Molnupiravir Compared to Placebo Administered Orally to High-risk Adult Outpatients With Mild COVID-19 Receiving Local Standard of Care in South Africa NCT05459532 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• SUNRISE-3: Efficacy and Safety of Bemnifosbuvir in High-Risk Outpatients With COVID-19 NCT05629962 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.