Infusion of Prostacyclin (Iloprost) vs Placebo for 72-hours in COVID-19 Patients With Respiratory Failure
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-23, after 2020-06-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hoursacutepulmonarythe purposepurpose of
Phrases that lowered it: patientsefficacy andand safetythis trialsafety of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 37.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5516 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 448 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 37.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- iloprost, isotonic
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Inhaled Iloprost for Suspected COVID-19 Respiratory Failure NCT04445246 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Enhanced Platelet Inhibition in Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 NCT04368377 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Antisense Therapy to Block the Kallikrein-kinin Pathway in COVID-19 NCT04549922 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Study To antagOnize Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 in Severe COVID-19 NCT04634799 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy of CONvalescent Plasma in Patients With COVID-19 Treated With Mechanical Ventilation NCT04558476 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.