NFX-179 Topical Gel Treatment in Adults With Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) and Cutaneous Neurofibromas (cNF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasthe subjectsubject isstagesubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalacidareapharmacokineticsretinoids
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NFX-179 Topical Gel Treatment for Adults With Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) and Cutaneous Neurofibromas (cNF) NCT05005845 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Use of Topical Liquid Diclofenac Following Laser Microporation of Cutaneous Neurofibromas in Patients With NF1 NCT03090971 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Tolerability of Device Based Therapies for Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Cutaneous Neurofibromas NCT04730583 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Dosing and Tolerability of Deoxycholic Acid vs. Polidocanol in the Treatment of Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Cutaneous Neurofibromas NCT06120036 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• DPCP to Treat Cutaneous Neurofibromas Associated With NF1 NCT05438290 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.