Dosing and Tolerability of Deoxycholic Acid vs. Polidocanol in the Treatment of Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Cutaneous Neurofibromas
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-01-09, after 2022-12-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients musttumorpatientgrowththerapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantvisitthe studythe investigatoropinion -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 1129 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1129 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 181 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2969 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 346 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 17.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- deoxycholic acid, polidocanol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Skin Cooling in Reducing Pain Associated With Non-invasive Treatments of Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Cutaneous Neurofibromas NCT06132165 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Tolerability of Device Based Therapies for Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Cutaneous Neurofibromas NCT04730583 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Use of Topical Liquid Diclofenac Following Laser Microporation of Cutaneous Neurofibromas in Patients With NF1 NCT03090971 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- NFX-179 Topical Gel Treatment in Adults With Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) and Cutaneous Neurofibromas (cNF) NCT04435665 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- DPCP to Treat Cutaneous Neurofibromas Associated With NF1 NCT05438290 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.