Descartes-11 Consolidation Treatment in Patients With High-Risk Multiple Myeloma Who Have Residual Disease After Induction Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-04-09, after 2021-02-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplanttherapypatients mustdiseasehigh risk
Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipledrugspatients whodrug -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Descartes-08 Consolidation Treatment in Patients With High-Risk Multiple Myeloma High-Risk Multiple Myeloma Who Have Residual Disease After Induction Therapy NCT04816526 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide, Dexamethasone in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed High-risk Multiple Myeloma NCT02217163 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell Transplantation To Treat High Risk Multiple Myeloma With Reduced Toxicity Myeloablative Conditioning Regimen NCT00615589 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Reduce Intensity Conditioning Donor Stem Cell Transplant for the Treatment of Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT04205240 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Busulfan, Cyclophosphamide, and Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT00941720 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.