A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults for COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (776 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-21, after 2020-06-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: infectionhepatitis virusdiseasecareheart
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinehealthyvaccinationparticipantsimmunogenicity -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 42.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 42.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 156 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 97 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- covid19 vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Dose-Confirmation Study to Evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults for COVID-19 NCT04515147 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- COVID-19: A Study to Evaluate Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine CVnCoV in Adults With Co-morbidities NCT04860258 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults in Germany for COVID-19 NCT04674189 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity Trial of CV2CoV mRNA Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2 in Seropositive Adult Participants NCT05260437 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Monovalent Recombinant COVID19 Vaccine NCT04453852 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.