A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults in Germany for COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-06-08, after 2020-12-23 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: trialpriorpotentialbirth controlof birth
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineadministration ofor plannedplanned useuse during -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 42.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 42.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 306 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 217 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- covid19 vaccine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Dose-Confirmation Study to Evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults for COVID-19 NCT04515147 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- COVID-19: A Study to Evaluate Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine CVnCoV in Adults With Co-morbidities NCT04860258 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 2b/3, Randomized, Observer-Blinded, Placebo-Controlled, Multicenter Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Investigational SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine CVnCoV in Adults 18 Years of Age and Older NCT04652102 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity and Immunogenicity of Vaccine CVnCoV in Healthy Adults for COVID-19 NCT04449276 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Monovalent Recombinant COVID19 Vaccine NCT04453852 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.