Testing the Addition of an Anti-cancer Immune Therapy Drug (Nivolumab) to the Usual Chemotherapy Treatment (Cisplatin or Carboplatin With Gemcitabine) for Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycisplatincellcancergemcitabine
  Phrases that lowered it: virushcvarthritisrheumatoidinfluenza
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 201626 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1308 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 27994 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab + Chemoradiation in Stage II-IVB Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) NCT03267498 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Testing the Safety of Adding Either Monalizumab (IPH2201) or Oleclumab (MEDI9447) to Durvalumab (MEDI4736) Plus Standard Radiation Therapy for Locally Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC), ARCHON-1 Trial NCT03801902 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Trial Evaluating Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy for Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) Patients NCT02578641 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX) NCT04282109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Consolidation Pembrolizumab After Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT04227509 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.