Non-comparative Trial of the Combination of HCQ and AZI in the Treatment of ICU Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagepatientpatientschronic kidneybreast
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelkgrespiratorysafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 124938 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating the Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to Prevent Hospitalization or Death in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04358068 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Hydroxychloroquine Monotherapy and in Combination With Azithromycin in Patients With Moderate and Severe COVID-19 Disease NCT04358081 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Hydroxychloroquine,Hydroxychloroquine,Azithromycin in the Treatment of SARS CoV-2 Infection NCT04341727 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Treating COVID-19 With Hydroxychloroquine (TEACH) NCT04369742 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Orally Inhaled Aerosolized Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate in Healthy Adult Volunteers NCT04461353 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.