Targeting EGFR/ERBB2 With Neratinib in Hormone Receptor (HR)-Positive/HER2-negative HER2-enriched Advanced/Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancermetastatictherapywomen
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsmalefemaleopen label
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neratinib +/- Fulvestrant in Metastatic HER2 Non-amplified But HER2 Mutant Breast Cancer NCT01670877 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Neratinib +/- Fulvestrant in HER2+, ER+ Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03289039 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Temsirolimus Plus Neratinib for Patients With Metastatic HER2-Amplified or Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT01111825 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Targeting the PAM50 Her2-Enriched Phenotype With Enzalutamide in Hormone Receptor-Positive/Her2-Negative Metastatic BC NCT04142060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Phase1 of Neratinib+Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab, Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors/HER2+ NCT02593708 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.