Antiviral Agents Against COVID-19 Infection
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-08-04, after 2021-02-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsmg dlfailureheartpatient
Phrases that lowered it: 19positiveadultsrespiratorydays -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18741 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 974 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- atazanavir, daclatasvir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Tolerability of Emricasan in Symptomatic Outpatients Diagnosed With Mild-COVID-19 NCT04803227 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of XAV-19 in Patients With COVID-19 Induced Moderate Pneumonia NCT04453384 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Favipiravir in Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04529499 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Antroquinonol in Mild-Moderate COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients NCT04523181 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Open Multicentre Study of the Safety and Efficacy Against COVID-19 of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir in the Adult Population NCT05601167 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.