A Study to Evaluate U3-1402 in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcolorectalhepatitisbrainmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantssolidarthritislabel
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Ulixertinib in Combination With Hydroxychloroquine in Patients With Advanced Gastrointestinal (GI) Malignancies NCT05221320 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Cetuximab and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Colorectal Cancer That is Metastatic or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02713373 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Study of Combination Therapy With the MEK Inhibitor, Cobimetinib, Immune Checkpoint Blockade, Atezolizumab, and the AUTOphagy Inhibitor, Hydroxychloroquine in KRAS-mutated Advanced Malignancies NCT04214418 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1b/2a, Open-label Study of Vactosertib in Combination With Durvalumab in Advanced NSCLC NCT03732274 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.