Abemaciclib and Niraparib Before Surgery for the Treatment of Hormone Receptor Positive HER2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancercellsher2syndrometherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmmhgparticipantshypertension90
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 39.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Targeting the PAM50 Her2-Enriched Phenotype With Enzalutamide in Hormone Receptor-Positive/Her2-Negative Metastatic BC NCT04142060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Circulating Tumor DNA Enriched, Genomically Directed Post-neoadjuvant Trial for Patients With Residual Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT04849364 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy With Weekly Paclitaxel or Eribulin Followed by A/C in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01705691 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Cabozantinib for Metastatic Triple-negative Breast Cancer NCT03316586 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.