Study of DS-1062a in Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With Actionable Genomic Alterations (TROPION-Lung05)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecellcancerrelapsedplatinum
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantand safetyjointthe efficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DS-1205c With Gefitinib for Metastatic or Unresectable Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR)-Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03599518 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• DS-1205c With Osimertinib for Metastatic or Unresectable Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR)-Mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03255083 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Biomarkers of Response to Pembrolizumab Combined With Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (KEYNOTE-782, MK-3475-782) NCT03664024 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Platform Trial of Novel Regimens Versus Standard of Care (SoC) in Participants With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Sub-study 1 NCT05553808 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study of Erlotinib With or Without Investigational Drug (U3-1287) in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01211483 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.