Nivolumab Plus Axitinib in Patients With Anti-PD1 Refractory Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomamelanomastagetherapyprogression
  Phrases that lowered it: blood pressurethe trialvaccinedosepatients with
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11339 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ANV419 Alone or in Combination With Approved Treatment in Patients With Cutaneous Melanoma (OMNIA-1). NCT05578872 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab (Anti-PD-1) and AMG386 (Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor NCT03239145 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Apatinib With Pembrolizumab in Previously Treated Advanced Malignancies NCT03407976 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Aldesleukin and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma NCT02748564 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Advanced Melanoma With MK-3475 and Peginterferon NCT02112032 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.