A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Effect on Disease Progression of BIIB105 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) and Participants With the ALS Ataxin-2 (ATXN2) Genetic Mutation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebotypecontrolledthe purposeof study
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsopen labelhealtheffect
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 279 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of BIIB078 in Adults With C9ORF72-Associated Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT03626012 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Ibudilast (MN-166) in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT02238626 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase1 First in Human Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of FC-12738 in Health Adults NCT05978908 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study for SAR443820 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05237284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• iPSC-based Drug Repurposing for ALS Medicine (iDReAM) Study NCT04744532 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.