Tucatinib, Trastuzumab, Ramucirumab, and Paclitaxel Versus Paclitaxel and Ramucirumab in Previously Treated HER2+ Gastroesophageal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticlocally advancedpaclitaxelunresectablecancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantseffectblooddrugdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15394 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 108850 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Trastuzumab Emtansine Versus Taxane in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT01641939 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• LOGiC - Lapatinib Optimization Study in ErbB2 (HER2) Positive Gastric Cancer: A Phase III Global, Blinded Study Designed to Evaluate Clinical Endpoints and Safety of Chemotherapy Plus Lapatinib NCT00680901 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Tucatinib Plus Trastuzumab in Patients With HER2+ Colorectal Cancer NCT03043313 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of ZW25 (Zanidatamab) Plus Combination Chemotherapy in HER2-expressing Gastrointestinal Cancers, Including Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma, Biliary Tract Cancer, and Colorectal Cancer NCT03929666 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Anti-HER2 Bispecific Antibody Zanidatamab (ZW25) Activity in Combination With Chemotherapy With/Without Tislelizumab NCT04276493 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.